Geopolitical Risk Advisory
We score the market on a stated method, trace how it reaches your business, and put a defensible range on what it could cost — while there are still options.
What comes out
Illustrative model — constructed example, not client data
Ranges and probabilities. Not predictions.
What we do
Geopolitics does not reach a company as a country score. It reaches it down a named channel, into a figure someone already reports on. Tracing that path — and putting a range on it — is the work.
Strait of Hormuz · Transit disrupted — reaches
One of the three crosses the materiality threshold. Which one is not obvious from a map, a headline or a rating — it is the answer to the question we are hired for.
See this run end to end, and how a market is scored
Illustrative example — constructed to show the method. No magnitude is stated here, and no figure comes from client work.
Built on your numbers
A general model produces a general answer, and a general answer cannot support a decision. We build on the figures management already reports on.
Revenue and margin by market, currency mix, licences, contracts, routes, and the cost lines that move when a market does. Nothing produced specially for us.
Subscribers, landed cost and churn — or tonnes, days of cover and take-or-pay. A figure nobody has to translate is a figure the room can act on.
Your names for your markets, segments and business lines. Renaming a company's own world puts a translation step exactly where the decision is.
Turn one off and the interval recomputes in front of you. It is the fastest way for your team to find the assumption they disagree with.
A range in the company's own figures, with its assumptions beside it. That is what a board can approve, challenge or send back.
The handover
Everything above exists so that a decision can be taken in a room, on a date, by people who did not read any of it. What crosses the table is brief on purpose, and it is written in the units the business is already managed in.
Assessment, quantified scenarios and decision options
The decision document
One position, its range, what would change it and who is watching that condition. Nothing to log into.
Illustrative structure — sample content, not client work.
Who it is for
The questions we are hired to answer
Should we enter?
Who works with us
We do not publish client names, logos or testimonials — and we never will. What we can publish is the shape of the work.
Listeners in 180+ markets · Digital media & subscriptions
Operations across dozens of markets on four continents · Delivery platforms & logistics
Specific references — with names — are available in a direct conversation, with the client's permission.
Position
Being told faster what already happened is not analysis.
A rating closes at the number. Ours opens: a transmission path in front of it, and a range in your own figures at the end.
The method is the same for everyone. The model is built from your metrics, in your units.
Analysis that can be challenged is analysis that can be used.
One market, one scenario, one thing you are weighing. Tell us the figures the business is managed in and we will come back with how we would structure it.
Confidential introductory conversation. NDA available where appropriate.